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| #445594 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 29.Jul.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 1000 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DON HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH AN ELONGATED OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AND A STREAM OF ARC CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CYCLONE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS NEAR 1002 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/12. DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER LAND IN 36-48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. DON SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE SHEAR UNTIL THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN ABOUT 18 HR. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOW DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF DON. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPEDE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. DON SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON. ANY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 26.2N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.8N 96.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 27.7N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 28.3N 101.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
