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| #44567 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 07.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...WITH ODT ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. NATE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF STRONG WESTERLIES IS APPROACHING NATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS FLOW MAY BEGIN TO RESTRICT AND/OR UNDERCUT THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE GFS FORECASTS THAT NATE WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HURRICANE IS WOBBLING AT 035/4. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR TRACK. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS WEAKENING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY AND HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST KEEPS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 29.5N 65.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 30.1N 65.3W 80 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 31.2N 63.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 32.5N 61.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 34.2N 57.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 47.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1800Z 41.0N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1800Z 45.0N 24.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
