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| #445676 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 29.Jul.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 400 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DON REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A DISORGANIZED MASS OF STRONG CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 46 KT WITH THE SFMR...BOTH IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER WIND DISPLAYS FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MESOCYCLONE IN A STRONG CONVECTIVE CELL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/14. DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI IN THE NEXT 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE 12 HR FORECAST POINT SHOWS WEAKENING...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DON TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN THE FEW HOURS REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 48 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.9N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 27.5N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 28.2N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0600Z 28.8N 103.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
