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| #44611 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 07.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA IS AGAIN DECREASING AS THE HURRICANE INGESTS DEEP-LAYER COOLER AND DRYER AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AT 2106Z....AND A COMPROMISE OF 45 KT...55 KT...AND 77 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. MARIA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...BUT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. MARIA IS MOVING 050/12. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITHOUT MUCH ACCELERATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DONE THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 36 HR AND ON THE LEFT SIDE AFTER THAT. THE 72-120 HR PORTION OF THE TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED ON THE BASIS OF THE QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 37.5N 49.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 38.6N 47.7W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/0000Z 40.2N 45.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/1200Z 41.7N 43.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/0000Z 43.2N 41.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0000Z 47.0N 36.9W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0000Z 52.0N 31.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0000Z 58.0N 27.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
