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| #44617 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 07.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20 NM...RAGGED EYE WHICH APPEARS TO BE OPEN ON THE EAST SIDE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IS BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION EXISTS BEFORE THE UPPER WESTERLIES MOVE OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. INITIAL MOTION IS 040/5. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MID-LATITUDE FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS THAT NATE WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 60 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET INDICATES BINARY INTERACTION WITH MARIA NEAR DAY 4...ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST KEEPS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 29.8N 65.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 30.6N 64.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 31.9N 62.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 09/1200Z 33.4N 58.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 10/0000Z 35.1N 54.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 38.0N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0000Z 42.0N 32.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0000Z 46.0N 21.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
