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| #4465 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:22 AM 12.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004 RECENT DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITES...AND RADARS FROM CUBA INDICATE CHARLEY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED. THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 983 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 83 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AT 700 MB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND EARLIER RECON WIND REPORTS INDICATING NEAR 80 KT SURFACE WINDS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND IS IMPROVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/15. CHARLEY REMAINS BASICALLY ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WHILE THE SPREAD IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE...THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV DROPSONDE DATA ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ERODING EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CHARLEY TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TURN NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE HURRICANE IS NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...CHARLEY WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WHICH WILL ACT TO ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST OF CHARLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE...WHICH IS LESSENING THE SHEAR. SINCE THE CENTRAL CORE DEEP CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...AND THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF WARMER WATER AHEAD...CHARLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA. AFTER PASSING OVER CUBA...THE INTENSITY MAY DROP SLIGHTLY...BUT RE-STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ALMOST UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT CHARLEY COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT MAKES LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SOUTHWARD WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LESS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 19.7N 81.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 21.6N 82.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 24.6N 83.1W 95 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 28.0N 82.8W 95 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.2N 81.2W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/1200Z 40.5N 76.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/1200Z 47.0N 66.0W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
