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| #44660 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 08.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT MARIA IS COMPLETING THE FINAL STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE EAST SIDE. A RATHER LARGE REGION OF MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...SPREADING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. AN EXTENSIVE...SHARP EDGED...CIRRUS SHIELD IS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AS THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH A POLAR JET FINGER. BASED ON THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN YESTERDAY MORNING'S MODERATE RE-INTENSIFICATION WAS INDICATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION STAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF 45 KT...55 KT...AND 77 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. EVEN THOUGH MARIA IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN 24 HOURS...IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 050/11. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 38.3N 48.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 39.4N 46.9W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/0600Z 41.0N 44.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/1800Z 42.4N 42.2W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/0600Z 44.2N 39.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0600Z 48.5N 35.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0600Z 54.0N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0600Z 59.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
