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| #44663 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 08.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE THIS MORNING FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH CONFIRMS THE 75-KT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY USED IN THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED IN THIS ADVISORY. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARNCE...WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY THE FLIGHT CREW . INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. NATE HAS FINALLY ROUNDED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. NATE'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...COOLER WATER AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE AZORES. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 30.2N 64.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 31.2N 63.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 32.9N 60.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 09/1800Z 34.5N 55.9W 75 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 50.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 40.0N 38.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0600Z 44.0N 28.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0600Z 48.1N 18.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
