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| #446699 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 02.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 ...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 64.0W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...AND APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL EMILY INTERACTS WITH LAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
