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| #446747 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 02.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 ...EMILY HESITATES...IT COULD BE REORGANIZING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 63.6W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EMILY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 12 MPH...19 KM/H...LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WAS REPORTED ON ST. THOMAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
