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| #446790 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:08 PM 02.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 200 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 ...EMILY BACK ON TRACK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 64.8W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST. EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
