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| #446825 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 02.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 ...EMILY A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 65.4W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF EMILY ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE LOCATED MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
