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| #446828 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 02.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET WELL DEFINED AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 45 KNOTS AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE EMILY MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IF EMILY SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GFS...WHICH DISSIPATED EMILY IN THE TWO PREVIOUS RUNS HAS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM MOVING EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE 12 UTC RUN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE. SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND HAS BEEN REFORMING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SPEED. MOST OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS EMILY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.8N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.2N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.3N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.5N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 20.5N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 05/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 28.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 32.0N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
