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| #447024 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:34 AM 03.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 800 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011 ...EMILY HEADING WESTWARD...REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6 69.0W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... *CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST. EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. HOWEVER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES HISPANIOLA...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
