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| #447063 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 03.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DEPARTED EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. THE LAST WINDS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHILE EXITING THE CYCLONE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS EMILY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. ASSUMING EMILY CAN MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.7N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.5N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 21.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 05/1200Z 23.0N 76.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 26.6N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 30.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 34.1N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
