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| #447065 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 03.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011 ...EMILY BECOMING DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...STILL EXPECTED TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 69.7W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN IN EASTERN CUBA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
