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| #44709 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:28 AM 08.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH AND IT IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NATE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 30.9N 63.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 32.0N 61.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 57.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 36.5N 47.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1200Z 44.0N 26.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1200Z 50.0N 17.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
