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| #44712 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 08.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT MARIA REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT... WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. ALTHOUGH MARIA IS GAINING SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... INCLUDING AN EXPANSION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...THE TRANSITION IS NOT YET COMPLETE. CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS DIAGRAMS FROM FSU ALSO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOSTLY WARM CORE. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...AND IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11. MARIA CONTINUES MOVING RATHER SLOWLY BECAUSE THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FAR TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. FOR NOW...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE MARIA ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS...BETWEEN THE GFS AND NOGAPS. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 39.1N 47.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 40.2N 46.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/1200Z 41.7N 43.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/0000Z 43.3N 41.3W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/1200Z 45.5N 39.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/1200Z 51.0N 35.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1200Z 56.0N 31.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1200Z 61.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
