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| #447338 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 04.Aug.2011) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1500 UTC THU AUG 04 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 72.3W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 72.3W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 71.7W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.6N 73.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 32.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
