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| #447396 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 04.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011 SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
