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| #44772 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 08.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 THE EYE HAS BEEN INTTERMMITTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERAFTER...NATE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATINGLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 14 KNOTS....WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 31.8N 62.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 60.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 35.0N 55.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 51.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 46.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 41.0N 35.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW |
