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| #44775 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 08.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA WITH AN EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. AMSU AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. MARIA HAS RETAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...CUT OFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES... AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY DELAY FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FOR A DAY OR SO. AFTER A SLOW WEAKENING OVER 23-25C WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... THE CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY INTO A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF HURRICANE-FORCE BECAUSE OF ENERGY FROM A BAROCLINIC TROUGH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...ESTIMATED AT 045/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER WITH MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE LONGER-TERM FORECAST IS HOW MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE AN UPPER TROUGH LEAVING SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN CONU AND THE GFS SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH AND...CONSQUENTLY...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SOUTH OF ICELAND. WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 39.5N 46.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 40.5N 45.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/1800Z 46.0N 38.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1800Z 59.0N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1800Z 63.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
