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| #44779 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 08.Sep.2005) TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z THU SEP 08 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 29.0N 79.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.5N 78.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.7N 77.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 30.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH |
