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| #44812 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 08.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA AND IS NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYE-LIKE HOLE IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE. THE CYCLONE IS NOW OVER 25C WATER AND MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT THERE WAS NO QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS EVENING TO SHOW IF MARIA IS STILL A HURRICANE. BASED ON THE COOLER WATER AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT. MARIA SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 36 HR AS IT LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER COOLER WATER...THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. MARIA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES FOR 24 HR...THEN TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 39.7N 45.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 40.7N 44.4W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 10/0000Z 42.3N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/1200Z 44.8N 39.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/0000Z 47.6N 37.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/0000Z 55.0N 33.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/0000Z 60.0N 29.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/0000Z 64.0N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
