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| #44813 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 08.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NATE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A WELL-ORGANIZED AND IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN FACT...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB IMPLIES SOME STRENGTHENING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 4.5...OR 77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. MORE RECENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO SHOW THE TELL-TALE SIGNS OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...A RECENT SSMI PASS SHOWED VERY DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF NATE. IN LIGHT OF THIS...NATE IS LIKELY PEAKING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. NATE SHOULD ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE. NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060/18. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY... NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 33.0N 60.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 34.3N 57.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 35.3N 52.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 36.2N 47.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 37.3N 43.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
