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| #44865 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 09.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 MARIA CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESILIENT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. EVEN THOUGH MARIA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVE COOLER WATER...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE STILL IMPLIES A PRIMARILY WARM CORE STRUCTURE. ACCORDINGLY...MARIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TROPICAL IN NATURE THROUGH 12 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THEREAFTER. DURING THE TRANSITION...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. MARIA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 40.2N 44.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 41.2N 42.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 43.6N 39.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/1800Z 46.8N 36.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/0600Z 50.4N 34.2W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/0600Z 57.1N 28.9W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/0600Z 62.0N 24.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/0600Z 64.5N 18.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
