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| #44872 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 AM 09.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING OPHELIA SINCE 02Z...AND NO STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WINDS HIGHER THAN 50 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THERE WAS ONE DROPSONDE NEAR 05Z WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 58 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT. OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/5. OPHELIA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP LIFT OPHELIA SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO...BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE OPHELIA BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET HAVE BEEN INGESTED INTO THE 00Z MODELS...AND WHETHER BY COINCIDENCE OR CONSEQUENCE...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST...TAKING OPHELIA WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN 4-5 DAYS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS STORM...I HAVE ONLY MADE A MODEST WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT WHICH AREAS MIGHT ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY OPHELIA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THIS CYCLONE TO THE COAST AND THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS DICTATES THAT INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OPHELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OPHELIA MAY HAVE REMAINED STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO BRING UP COOLER WATERS EVEN OVER THE GULF STREAM. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING AND ITS UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. OPHELIA SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT QUITE A BIT BELOW THE GFDL...WHICH MAKES OPHELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 29.3N 79.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 29.9N 78.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 30.5N 77.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 31.0N 77.3W 70 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 31.0N 76.8W 70 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 30.7N 76.8W 75 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 30.5N 77.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.5W 75 KT |
