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| #44877 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:17 AM 09.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS RAPIDLY DEGENERATED. WHILE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON CONSTRAINTS. GIVEN THE RAPID DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THE LATEST UW-CIMSS RAW AODT VALUE OF 4.3 IS USED FOR THE BASIS OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT. NATE NOW APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH HAS PROVIDED A ONE-TWO PUNCH. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SO FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW WEAKENS NATE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS NATE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...NATE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL A LITTLE QUICKER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE. NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065/19. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY... NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 33.6N 58.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 34.3N 55.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 35.1N 50.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 36.1N 44.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 37.3N 40.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 45.1N 30.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
