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| #449376 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 12.Aug.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE PAST DAY OR TWO HAS LOST ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON ITS PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER BUOY REPORTS...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT FORECAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25C AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 065/14 AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL HEADING UNTIL IT MERGES WITH A FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 36.0N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 37.0N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 38.5N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 39.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 40.6N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART |
