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| #449466 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 12.Aug.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 THROUGH 0000 UTC...THE DEPRESSION WAS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH SSM/IS AND TRMM DATA NEAR 2330 UTC SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE CURVATURE NEAR THE CENTER. SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A DIURNAL MINIMUM OR THE START OF A WEAKENING TREND. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/19. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THE EAST THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE DEPRESSION IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 6-12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE DEPRESSION MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HR...AND THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS INTENSE THAN THE FORECAST OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 36.6N 61.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 37.8N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 39.3N 54.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 40.3N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/0000Z 40.3N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
