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| #449578 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 13.Aug.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...A SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN. PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAD DEVELOPED BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...AND THAT COULD BE WHEN FRANKLIN POSSIBLY REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 45 KT. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ERODED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER BENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB...38 KT FROM CIRA-AMSU...AND 39 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/19 BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD OFF OF THE U.S. NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FRANKLIN MOVING IN A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. FRANKLIN LIKELY PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IS NOW ENTERING A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT MOVES OVER WATER COOLER THAN 26C AND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN 24-36 HOURS INDUCING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH BAROCLINIC ENERGY TO CAUSE FRANKLIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS LOWER THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 39.0N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 39.9N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 40.6N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 15/0000Z 40.6N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/1200Z 40.0N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
