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| #44976 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:28 PM 09.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT OPHELIA HAS A CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED 983 MB...72-KNOT WINDS AT 700 MB...A FEW 62-KNOT WINDS MEASURED BY THE SFMR AND A 10-N MI DIAMETER CIRCULAR EYE. FOR ACADEMICS...PERHAPS IT IS NECESSARY TO HAVE ONE OR TWO MORE KNOTS TO MAKE A OPHELIA A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY...SO OPHELIA IS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE NOW. THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OPHELIA...ONCE THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS WESTWARD TURN. A GRADUAL STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED...BUT OPHELIA IS KEPT AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...TO ERR BY ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...DUE TO OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING RAPID INTENSITY CHANGE. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO STOP AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF EACH MODEL IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA. WE ARE PUTTING ALL THE BETS IN THE FORMATION OF THE HIGH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT GOING AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS THE GFDL AND NOT AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS THE GFS. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 30.0N 78.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 30.6N 78.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 31.3N 77.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 31.5N 77.7W 75 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 31.6N 78.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 33.0N 80.5W 50 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND |
