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| #44977 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:28 PM 09.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE EYE STRUCTURE OF MARIA IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING OPEN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE...IT IS ABOUT TIME. SATELLITE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS TAKING ON MORE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF MARIA. SOUTHWEST SHEAR MAY ALSO BE INCREASING A BIT DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM NATE. ANY SHORT-TERM WEAKENING SHOULD END WHEN MID-LATITUDE ENERGY GETS CLOSER TO MARIA OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE DAYS. CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS GAINING MORE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A SHALLOWER WARM CORE AND MORE ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. THERE ARE NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE INITIAL MOTION... ABOUT 045/13. STRONGER DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE AFFECTING MARIA SOON AND CAUSE SOME ACCELERATION. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST TURN IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM NORTH AMERICA CAPTURES THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF PREVIOUS... BRINGING A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ICELAND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE... THEN PROBABLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER SCANDINAVIA. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 41.6N 41.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 43.4N 39.7W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 10/1800Z 46.7N 37.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 11/0600Z 50.5N 35.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1800Z 54.5N 33.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/1800Z 60.5N 27.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/1800Z 66.0N 14.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/1800Z...ABSORBED |
