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| #449877 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 14.Aug.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC WERE 30 KT...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0100 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND DRY AIR AROUND IT...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CROSSES A VERY SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND INTERACTS WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. BY DAY 4...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT. THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONGER FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ONE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH...OR ABSORBING...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION COULD MOVE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 28.5N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 29.4N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 31.2N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 33.7N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 37.3N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 45.5N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN |
