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| #45020 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 09.Sep.2005) TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z SAT SEP 10 2005 INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 77.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 77.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 77.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.0N 76.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.2N 76.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.5N 77.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.7N 77.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 77.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
