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| #450259 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 15.Aug.2011) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011 1500 UTC MON AUG 15 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 63.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 63.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 34.3N 62.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 37.8N 59.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 40.8N 54.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 43.4N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 48.5N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 63.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
