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| #45123 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:14 AM 10.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST REPORTED 976 MB AND MEASURED 78 KNOTS AT 700 MB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OPHELIA IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED EITHER SO THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD. OPHELIA HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND THESE WINDS MAY BE APPROACHING THE COAST EARLIER THAN THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 31.6N 76.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 32.0N 76.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 32.2N 76.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 32.3N 77.4W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 32.5N 78.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 70 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/1200Z 37.6N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND |
