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| #451572 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 20.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011 AFTER A LULL BETWEEN 0400 AND 0600 UTC...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-BLOSSOMED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF HARVEY...WHICH IS VERY NEAR ROATAN ACCORDING TO A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THAT ISLAND. SINCE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE STRUCTURE WHEN THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION WAS INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 50 KT. ANOTHER RECON MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH HARVEY AROUND 1200 UTC. BASED ON THE ROATAN OBSERVATIONS...HARVEY MAY HAVE PICKED UP SOME SPEED...AND ITS INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/10. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING HARVEY ON A NEARLY CONSTANT WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR THE GFS... ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE HARVEY REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER TODAY. THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE THE HIGHEST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INDICATE THAT HARVEY COULD BE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 12 HOURS. SINCE LANDFALL ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WOULD BE WITHIN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT HARVEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE EVEN THOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN FACT...THERE IS A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND RECENT NHC INTENSITY ERRORS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER HARVEY MOVES INLAND...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AND BEYOND FOLLOWS THE DECAY OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS. DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE GUATEMALAN COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 16.4N 86.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 16.5N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 16.7N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z 16.9N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0600Z 17.2N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/STEWART |
