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| #45165 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 10.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 LATEST RECON DATA SHOW THAT OPHELIA IS A 70-KNOT HURRICANE WITH A CLOSED EYEWALL OF ABOUT 30 N MI IN DIAMETER AND A 977 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE. CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED A LITTLE BIT. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 130 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE OCEAN IS A LITTLE BIT COOLER DUE TO THE UPWELLING. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. IN FACT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR THE GFDL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE ABOVE 80 KNOTS. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE...JUST A LITTLE NORTHEAST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THEREAFTER...I MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED A LOT SINCE THE LAST RUN. BUT IN GENERAL... LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO RIGHT WITH MOST OF THE TRACKS NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE GFDL WHICH IS BRINGING THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THIS IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...THE AREA OF HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR TONIGHT'S MODEL RUN WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DATA FROM THE NOAA JET. I WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY DO NOT SHIFT BACK TO THE LEFT LIKE THEY DID LAST NIGHT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 31.8N 76.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 76.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 32.0N 76.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 32.2N 76.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 32.5N 77.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 34.0N 78.2W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/1800Z 35.5N 78.0W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/1800Z 37.5N 73.5W 30 KT...INLAND |
