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| #451729 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 20.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011 THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE COVERAGE OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER...AND ON THAT BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. ALTHOUGH HARVEY HAS WEAKENED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 17.4N 90.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/1200Z 17.7N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0000Z 17.9N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
