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| #451792 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 21.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WERE OBSERVED IN A 0156 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN MOVING BRISKLY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 280/13. THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...BUT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST TO THE WEST OF A REMAINING CLUSTER ALONG THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...WITH SOME DECELERATION...UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BY 36 HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS AND BRIEFLY MOVES HARVEY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL TV15...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IF THE CENTER WAS TO MOVE OVER WATER AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...IT WOULD LIKELY NOT BE OFFSHORE LONG ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR... AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION. HEAVY RAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 17.7N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 18.1N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0600Z 18.3N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
