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| #451994 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 21.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HARVEY HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON CONTINUITY. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS BACK OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT... THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS HARVEY STRENGTHENING BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE TRACK SHOULD BEND A BIT MORE TO LEFT BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AS HARVEY MOVES UNDERNEATH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD PRIMARILY DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION AND REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A SMALL PORTION OF MEXICAN COAST BORDERING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 18.6N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 19.0N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 19.3N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 19.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN |
