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| #452080 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:46 PM 21.Aug.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 700 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 ...HARVEY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...HEADED FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 94.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN |
