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| #452084 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:52 PM 21.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 800 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING PAST ST. CROIX...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 64.9W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA * THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * HAITI * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY ON MONDAY. WEAKENING IS LIKELY LATER ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/H. A PUERTO RICO SEISMIC NETWORK STATION AT FAJARDO PUERTO RICO RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 MPH... 56 KM/H AND A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE DATA FROM ST. CROIX IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
