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| #452126 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 21.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 HARVEY HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A SHIP REPORTED 25 KT WINDS ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 0000 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...HARVEY ONLY HAS A SHORT TIME OVER WATER SO ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. A TURN TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS ALREADY MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY INDICATE THAT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT LAGUNA VERDE IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 19.3N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST 24H 23/0000Z 19.5N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN |
