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| #452204 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 22.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 400 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011 EARLIER OVERNIGHT...AN AUTOMATED STATION IN ALVARADO...WITHIN THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...REPORTED WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 20 KT AND A GUST TO 30 KT. BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...IT APPEARS THAT HARVEY TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MOVED INLAND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALVARADO BETWEEN 0000 AND 0300 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/9...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A LITTLE FASTER...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN ON THIS HEADING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY. CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN NOW THAT IT IS OVER LAND...AND IT COULD ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO EVEN IF THE CENTER OF HARVEY DISSIPATES LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 18.2N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
