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| #452231 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:55 AM 22.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 700 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011 ...IRENE GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 66.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER * ALL OF HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
