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| #452359 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 22.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 ...IRENE AIMS AT THE BAHAMAS...FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 68.6W ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO * ALL OF HAITI FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H... AND THIS MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IRENE COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
