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| #452962 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 24.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 74.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN THE BAHAMAS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
