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| #453182 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 25.Aug.2011) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1500 UTC THU AUG 25 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 76.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......250NE 200SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 90SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 76.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 76.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 250SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 76.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
